Hiking interest rates cools demand (people borrow and spend less). But if inflation comes from a failed monsoon (expensive vegetables) or a war spiking crude oil, a big +50 bps rate hike won't grow more onions—it only crushes factories and jobs!
You cannot have (a) low interest rates, (b) free foreign money movement, and (c) a fixed strong Rupee all at once. Cutting rates while selling FX reserves with open capital gates invites currency speculators to drain your vault!
When you Buy $25B of Dollars during foreign inflows, you print Rupees to pay for them—so you must Tighten Bank Rules (CRR) to soak up the extra Rupees. And remember: 60% of every interest rate change hits next turn!
| Turn | Macro Shock Event | Your Policy Combination | Turn Score | CPI Inflation | GDP Growth | USD/INR | FX Reserves |
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