US ELECTIONS & INDIAN STOCK MARKET • 30-YEAR HISTORY (1994–2024)
NIFTY 50 RETURN AFTER US ELECTIONS (%)
What Happens to the Indian Stock Market When Power Shifts in the US?
Nifty 50 returns in the first 1 month and the next 12 months after every US election flip since 1994
Market Rose Over Next 12 Months (6 Times)
Market Fell Over Next 12 Months (4 Times)
| # | US Election & Power Shift | Election Type | First 1 Month | Next 12 Months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Nov 1994: Republicans Win US Congress | Midterm | -3.8% | -21.4% | |
| 2. | Nov 2000: George W. Bush Wins Presidency | Presidential | +0.4% | -16.2% | |
| 3. | Nov 2006: Democrats Win US Congress | Midterm | +4.8% | +51.8% | |
| 4. | Nov 2008: Barack Obama Wins Presidency | Presidential | -11.3% | +53.4% | |
| 5. | Nov 2010: Republicans Win US House | Midterm | -4.9% | -16.8% | |
| 6. | Nov 2014: Republicans Win US Senate | Midterm | +2.6% | -3.4% | |
| 7. | Nov 2016: Donald Trump Wins Presidency | Presidential | -4.7% | +20.6% | |
| 8. | Nov 2018: Democrats Win US House | Midterm | +1.9% | +13.6% | |
| 9. | Nov 2020: Joe Biden Wins Presidency | Presidential | +11.4% | +50.5% | |
| 10. | Nov 2022: Republicans Win US House | Midterm | +2.4% | +6.8% | |
| When Indian Markets Rose (6 of 10 Elections) | Even when stocks fell in the first month, they rose over the full year | +0.8% Avg | +32.8% Avg | ||
| When Indian Markets Fell (4 of 10 Elections) | Happened during global recessions or high interest rates, not US politics | -1.4% Avg | -14.5% Avg | ||
| 30-Year Average Across All 10 US Elections | US elections cause 1-month noise, but Indian markets follow local growth | -0.1% Avg | +13.9% Avg | ||
*Note: Over the last 30 years, the Nifty 50 has returned ~13% a year on average, almost identical to the +13.9% average after US elections.
Source: NSE Nifty 50 Index History (1994–2024)